Pluto in Sagittarius has done for religion what Pluto in Scorpio did for sex. Up to 1983 (when Pluto moved into Scorpio) sex had been a taboo yet exciting pastime - if you were unlucky you could get venereal disease, but it certainly seemed the worth the risk. With the onset of Aids, sexual habits were radically reformed, because promiscuity could lead to death, which did not seem worth the risk. After 1995, (when Pluto moved into Sagittarius), Muslim fundamentalism began to be perceived as a threat, with concrete acts against the USA taking place as early as August 7, 1998 when the U.S. Embassies in Kenya and Tanzania were simultaneously destroyed by massive explosions.

Now - according to the philosophy of Al Qaeda - it is enough to be a Christian American or American ally to merit death. Muslim fundamentalism presents Islam as a complete system, unifying religion and government, and declaring Jihad against Western democracies, who are seen to be destroying Islam through puppet regimes in the Arab world. With Pluto in Sagittarius, religion has thus become a matter of life and death, and as a result a huge chasm has opened between Christian and Islam cultures. The destruction of New York 's twin towers was the outward manifestation of this, and the ascendancy of neo-conservatism and Christian fundamentalism in the USA a natural consequence.

The Arab world has experienced enormous upheaval in the years after 9/11. Afghanistan , Iraq , Palestine , Lebanon ... who can deny that the spectacle of democratic elections in these countries is a testimony to American power and influence? Some may say that these democracies are fragile and could easily revert to chaos or fundamentalism. Nevertheless, in these days of satellite TV, there is an inexorable force inspiring the population of the Middle East , and autocratic leaders have had to respond to this force. Months of demonstrations in Egypt , along with US pressure, forced President Mubarak to allow opposition candidates in future elections. The assassination of ex-Prime Minister Rafik Hariri of Lebanon led to demonstrations of over ½ million people (in a country of 3½ million) against the country's Syrian occupiers. Arafat's death has led to new hope for peace in Palestine . And of course the January 30 elections in Iraq - despite the ongoing insurrection - created a profound impression everywhere.

George W Bush and his neo-conservative crew are rubbing their hands with glee. There is a sense that their policy of exporting democracy to the Middle East is being vindicated. Iran and Syria are on the defensive. Libya has already abandoned its nuclear ambitions and is on its best behavior.

The question is: will the engine of democratic change in the Middle East keep running, or will it sputter and die? A subsidiary question is: does the USA really want democracy in the Middle East ? Prior US policy has been to deal with dictatorial leaders just as long as American interests were protected. There is a very real risk that democratic elections will return fundamentalist leaders - just as happened in Algeria when 1991 elections were won by the FIS (Islamic Salvation Front). This election victory was suppressed by an army coup - with the tacit support of France , and Europe and the USA - and there have since been over 150,000 deaths in the resultant conflict between the army and Islamic militants.

The good news is that the overt American support for democracy in the Middle East makes it very hard for the US government to continue supporting non-democratic regimes. Furthermore, looking at the astrology of Arab countries, it seems that an ongoing and dramatic transformation of their political systems will take place.

To find confirmation of this, it is important to have workable horoscopes for the respective countries. The 1958 horoscope for Iraq (Note 1) certainly seems effective. The conjunction of the Moon and Venus at 19 and 20 degrees Gemini, which Pluto has opposed for the last two years, testifies to the terrible upheaval for the people of Iraq , as well as the destruction of much of its infrastructure and cultural heritage. At the time of writing Saturn is stationary on Iraq 's Sun at 21 degrees Cancer just as elections take place and a government is being formed. This Saturn transit surely shows structural change that will ultimately provide stability for many years. It is worth looking at the chart for the election because it shows both the euphoria of the moment, and the extreme dangers it represented.

Iraq Election: 30 Jan 2005 . Noon chart. Equal House. Sun sign Ascendant 0 AQ

Using an Equal House noon solar chart, it can be seen that this is the time of the Mars/Pluto conjunction, and its opposition to the Moon and Venus in Iraq 's 1958 chart clearly shows that the election took place in an atmosphere of terrible threats and actual violence. Nevertheless, the Moon in Libra, which went on to trine the Sun/Neptune conjunction in Aquarius and later conjoin Jupiter, could not have been better placed. This was undoubtedly a euphoric moment for a large majority of the population, who were able to vote for the first time after decades of oppression. Mercury in this chart has just entered Aquarius - the voice of the people - and is exactly on the Sun position for every US presidential inauguration (January 20th), which is a very strong statement for democracy. Neptune in exactly on the Descendant of the 1958 chart (opposing its Mercury), which possibly indicates the chaotic nature of this democratic transformation, resulting from foreign occupation.

After Afghanistan , Palestine and Iraq , the focus moved to Lebanon , where demonstrations after the assassination of Hariri actually forced the withdrawal of Syrian armed forces. Lebanon has a number of significant horoscopes marking its independence from Free French forces during World War 2. (Note 2) Independence is celebrated on November 22nd, and the noon chart for the event in 1943 shows the Sun in Scorpio and the Moon in late Virgo squaring Mars at 17 Gemini and Saturn at 24.59 Gemini. This emphasis in mutable signs can be seen in other horoscopes for the Arab world apart from Iraq and Lebanon , as we will see later.

Lebanon underwent a grueling civil war from 1975-90, and it was through Syria 's influence and occupation that hostilities between the many private armies, which had been created over the years, ceased. That this process of disintegration could have continued for so long testifies to a latent explosiveness in Lebanon 's chart, which has Uranus, Mars and Saturn in Gemini. Probably the Pluto conjunction with the North Node also indicates a land that experiences ongoing transformation. At any rate, the civil war spanned the whole period when Uranus and later Pluto transited Scorpio , Lebanon 's sunsign.

Lebanon Independence: 22. Nov 1943 Noon chart, Solar sign Equal House (AS 0 SC)

The current Pluto transit of Lebanon 's Saturn seems to indicate an ongoing political restructuring for Lebanon , with much government instability. The car bomb explosion that killed Hariri took place with Uranus exactly square Lebanon 's Mercury.

Next in line for pressure and change is Syria , which recently saw the accession of Bashar Assad after his father's death in 2000. He was born on September 11th 1965 , on the Full Moon, with his Sun placed on the Uranus/Pluto conjunction of the time opposing Saturn. With the personal planets Mercury, Venus and Mars strongly placed in the signs they rule - Virgo, Libra and Scorpio, Bashar Assad is not a weak man, although his Moon/Saturn in Pisces square Jupiter in Gemini could mean he is vacillating and indecisive. He is certainly not to be underestimated: the Sun/Pluto conjunction sextile Mars in Scorpio shows an iron hand and a secretive nature.

Syria itself gained independence from France in the same process as Lebanon during World War 2 - in fact official independence for both countries was on January 1st 1944 placing an exact Mars/Uranus conjunction at 5 Gemini in the 8th house. It is not surprising that the current square to this placement from transiting Uranus in Pisces manifested as a car bomb that completely upset the political structure of both countries. Saturn is at 21.52 Gemini in this chart.

There is another significant horoscope for Syria when France early on in World War 2 granted independence as a gesture to win Arab support.

Syria: Independence from France 16 Sep 1941 Noon, Solar houses, sunsign AS 0 VI

This chart shows the Sun at 23 Virgo on the nodal axis, so once again we can see that transiting Pluto in Sagittarius is undermining and transforming the situation. As the Syrian Sun represents Assad himself, whose Moon is between 17 and 29 degrees Pisces, he may have some difficulty surviving the changes that must take place internally in Syria as the troops return.

He is certainly in an extremely uncomfortable position, weakened by the US invasion of Iraq , which took place when Pluto squared his natal Sun/Uranus/Pluto conjunction. He is going to be threatened by popular unrest and he risks being toppled by the army. It is interesting to note that Mars in Syria 's horoscope is at 23 Aries, showing a strong military, so Pluto's square to the Sun is simultaneous a trine to Mars, empowering the army.

Iran cannot be feeling too comfortable either, and the iconic chart for Khomeini's arrival from exile in 1979 (Note 6)once again shows a country in a process of transformation due to Pluto transits. The horoscope for this event is very evocative - Venus is in Sagittarius on the MC and conjures up a much loved religious leader arriving from the skies. Yet it is this very Venus/MC conjunction - which may well show the theocratic leadership of Iran - which will soon experience a Pluto transit, suggesting an overthrow of the present government within just two years. The indications are that the government in its present form cannot continue.

The power of religious authority is shown in a number of ways in this chart - for example the Sun/Mars conjunction in Aquarius opposing MC and 9th house ruler Jupiter in Leo, an obvious signature for an aggressively theocratic government. Saturn will conjoin Jupiter and oppose the Sun and Mars from 2005 to 2006, putting the government under extreme pressure. The present parliamentary regime in Iran was actually established on October 7th, 1906 , with Pluto at 23.44 Gemini, so present day Pluto is exactly opposite this position, which probably reflects the concern about nuclear proliferation as well as the potential for state transformation. Transiting Uranus will conjoin Saturn from the 1906 chart this year, too, so it does seem that revolutionary forces will destabilize the established theocratic government.

It is worth looking at the chart for the Islamic Republic established a few months after Khomeini arrived.

Iran - Islamic Republic 1 April 1979 15.00 Teheran

This timed chart clearly reflects modern Iran . The Moon square the Saturn/Venus opposition graphically portrays a government that insists its women cover their bodies from head to foot. The Mercury/Mars conjunction in the 8th house reflects a male population decimated in religious wars, whilst the trine to Jupiter in the 12th shows them sublimating their sexuality in religious fervor. With Pluto triggering the Mars/Neptune square in this period, and the 2006 Saturn/Neptune opposition falling on the Ascendant/Descendant axis it really does seem that upheaval and dissolution are on their way. The coming Pluto transit in square to Mars in the 8th does not bode well for a peaceful transition, but looking at the progressions for 2006 in this chart, the MC arrives on the Moon, suggesting a moment when the people take power, whilst the Ascendant progressed has already arrived to conjoin Saturn... so the clock of change is undoubtedly ticking.

It seems that Egypt too is facing upheaval. The 1922 horoscope for independence (note 3) and the 1953 horoscope for the Republic (note 4) have the Sun at 23 Pisces and 27 Gemini respectively. So it looks like Mubarak's attempt to quieten revolutionary voices by allowing an active opposition may result in his actually being removed by 2007. Pluto is currently on the 1922 Ascendant, and Uranus will return to its original position here in 2005.

Finally Saudi Arabia has sensitive points in late mutable signs, with the Sun at 28 Virgo for the formal proclamation of Saudi Arabia 's existence (Note 5) and the Moon at 27 Pisces during the significant 1902 capture of Riyadh .

So, over the next two to three years we will witness a profound restructuring of the Middle East . Fears that militant Islam will gain the upper hand will probably be unfounded though. In Iran nobody wants a continuation of 26 years of theocratic government, and neither is it likely that religious fundamentalism will gain strength as Pluto enters the last degrees of Sagittarius. Nevertheless, Pluto transits are not renowned for creating stability. Much of the extremism in the Middle East is spawned by the autocratic nature of the governments. When these governments disintegrate, extreme forces will be unleashed. However, the people want a taste of the freedom they have seen on satellite TV, so ultimately they are likely to reject religious oppression and embrace democracy - Arab style. Whether the Bush government will like the genie that comes out of this particular bottle is another matter altogether.

Adrian Duncan 17th March 2005

• 1. Iraq Republic 14 Jul 1958 7.00 Baghdad AS 14.40 LE
• 2. Thanks to Book of World Horoscopes by Nick Campion for the historical information
• 3. Egyptian Independence : March 14th 1922 Cairo . (AS 20.20 Sagittarius)
• 4. Egyptian Republic : June 18th 1953 23.30 GMT Cairo (AS 29.18 Aries)
• 5. Procamation of Saudi nation: Sept 21 1932
• 6. Khomeini lands: 1.02.1979 9.00 Teheran AS 21.44 PI